Putin has always expressed his unwillingness to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign nation. He constantly expresses his belief that Ukrainians and Russians are one people. The Ukrainians hear this as a denial of their history and culture.
Russia invaded Ukrainian sovereign territory eight years ago, whilst the country was torn apart by civil unrest and protestations against Putin’s puppet President Viktor Yanukovych. Crimea, the area Putin captured was once part of Russia, hence the pro-Russian stance of a large part of the population. This is the biggest land-grab since WW2.
Following the Russian Revolution in 1917, Stalin created the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR), becoming the dominant Soviet Republic with Moscow as its capital. Crimea was made the Autonomous Republic of the RSFSR.
The Tatars were a collective of over 5 million ethnic Muslim, Turkic (Turkish) speaking peoples, and many of them lived in the Crimea. Stalin wanted to gain access to the Straights of Dardanelles (connecting the Black Sea to the Med) and Turkish land. Scholars believe that he thought any attempt to occupy Turkish land would be opposed in the Crimea by the Tartars. During 18-20th May 1944, Lavrentiy Baria, the head of the Soviet Security Services, acted on the orders of Stalin. Under the pretence that the Tartars in Crimea had collaborated with the Nazis, he deported 200,000 men, women, and children in cattle trucks. Over half died before reaching Uzbek.
In 1954, Soviet leader Khrushchev transferred Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR from the Russian SFSR. The history books show conflicting reasons as to why. At the time, the press stated it was the Supreme Soviet gift to commemorate the 300th anniversary of the 1654 Treaty of Pereyaslav. Referring to a time when the Cossacks unified with Muscovy (the Grand Duchy of Moscow (1263–1547), the Tsardom of Russia (1547–1721), this put in place the eventual acquisition of Ukraine by Russia. Khrushchev had a fondness for Ukraine and was hoping to enlist the political obedience of Oleksiy Kyrychenko (who became First Secretary of the Communist Party of Ukraine in 1953). At the time, Khrushchev was in a power struggle with Malenkov (Stalin’s successor). Khrushchev led a coalition to force Malenkov to relinquish the post but feared that he was posturing to return to power.
By the 1960s, the RSFSR was the world’s 3rd largest petroleum producer. The wealth that came with it allowed Russia to rebuild and grow its military. However, by the mid-1980s, this financial success had started to wane. In part, due to a successful Cold War strategy (the arms race) and Gorbachev’s social reforms were not all economically adept. By 1990, many enterprises fell, and the USSR (the 15 soviet republics of which Ukraine was one) became unstable. On December 8 1991, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus signed a treaty dissolving the USSR. The RSFSR became the Russian Federation by the signature of the charismatic statesman Boris Yeltsin. The new Russian constitution came into being on December 12 1993.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has emphasised his unwillingness to accept Ukraine as a sovereign and independent country. His actions have always been to create a narrative where the Americans (thus Europe) recognise Ukraine as a ‘Russian zone of influence’. His obsession has driven the Ukrainian war for the last eight years. To think he will give up on his expansionist plans because of the western world’s anger and protestations of his acts is to be naïve
1975 Putin joins the KGB and becomes Lieutenant Colonel (1996).
1989 The collapse of the Berlin Wall and revolutionary changes swept East-Central Europe. Under Perestroika, Gorbachev’s USSR condemned the deportation of Tartar people from Crimea 45 years ago. Thousands start to return to their homeland.
1991, Aug 19 Soviet Union glasnost provoked KGB Chairman Vladimir Kryuchkov to lead the Soviet coup d’état to depose President Mikhail Gorbachev. Gorbachev resigns, and Boris Yeltsin is elected President.
1991, August 20 Lt. Col. Putin resigns from the KGB and enters politics.
1991, Dec Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus signed a treaty dissolving the USSR. The RSFSR became the Russian Federation.
1991 The Federation formed the Autonomous Republic of Crimea within independent Ukraine.
1994 As per the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, signed by Russia, USA, UK, France and China, Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. The world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. The signatories guaranteed to respect Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
1997 Ukraine agreed to lease Crimean naval facilities to the Russian Navy (The Black Sea Fleet) for 20 years until 2017. Ukraine would receive the payment in reduced payments for gas supply.
1998 Putin becomes Director of the Federal Security Service.
1999, Aug Yeltsin appoints Putin as Prime Minister.
1999, Dec Yeltsin resigns and appoints naming Putin his successor. Putin remains in office (apart from 2008 – 2012 when he was Prime Minister) and has since changed the Russian constitution that allows him to hold the office of President until 2036 (if successfully chosen by the electorate).
2000 Over 250,000 Tatars have returned to Crimea.
Throughout Europe, governments were challenged by mass protests shown on our news programmes in the west. In 2013 Ukraine, protests mounted against President Yanukovych. These protests (known as Euromaidan) responded to President Yanukovych’s refusal to sign a free trade agreement with the European Union.
Yanukovych was offered €610 million in loans and aid for Ukraine as part of the agreement. However, Russia was willing to offer $15 billion in loans and cheaper gas prices. The EU had demanded changes to Ukraine’s laws, but Russia had not.
The protests continued until February 21, 2014. Just hours after the transfer of €2 billion from Russia to Ukraine, Yanukovych sent riot police to quell the protest. The clashes between the protestors and the riot police resulted in the deaths of 130 people (including 18 police officers).
On February 21, 2014, Yanukovych made some concessions to parliament. The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said: “Yanukovych must stop behaving like a doormat, or Russia will withhold further loan instalments”. Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement urging Ukrainians to “crackdown on the extremists trying to get established in power.
In the early hours of February 22, 2014, Russian soldiers without insignias took control of strategic positions and infrastructure within the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. On March 1 2014, the Russian Federation petitioned President Putin to use military force in Ukraine. The resolution was adopted several days later, and the start of the Russian military operation on the “Returning of Crimea” began.
On February 29, Yanukovych and the parliamentary opposition leaders signed an agreement to conduct early elections and form an interim unity government. Medvedev refused to recognise Ukraine’s provisional government as legitimate. The following day, Yanukovych fled from the capital ahead of an impeachment vote. Protestors stormed the capital buildings. That same day, parliament declared Yanukovych was relieved of duty by a vote of 328-to-0.
2014 Russia Invades Ukraine and Annexed Crimea.
They say history repeats itself. And just as Stalin did in 1944, so would Putin, 70 years later. Over the next few years and once again, the Tartars would be the target of Russian forces.
According to the Crimean Tatar Resource Centre, there have been countless cases of human rights violations by Russians and Pro Russian Ukrainians against Tatars in Crimea. Between January and March 2020, Tatar people were targeted by law enforcement disproportionably. Tartars represent 13% of the population.
This report was almost 100 years to the day when Russia’s Vladimir reportedly wrote about his intention to annihilate the Tatar population of Crimea, threatening: “We will take them, divide them, subjugate them, digest them.”
Ethnic Cleansing, Just as the World Has Allowed With:
Following the 1994 Memorandum and economic support from Russia to Ukraine for hosting the Russian gas pipeline to Europe, Putin assumed Ukraine would realign itself to Moscow. However, his actions have ensured that the Ukrainian people will never align with Russia.
Before the invasion of Crimea in 2014, 26% of Ukrainians favoured joining NATO. Today, that figure is over 60%. And the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO is something that Putin will never allow. A recent poll shows 81% of Ukrainians hold a negative view of Putin, and 57% have a negative view of Russia (up from only 13% in 2014).
Putin’s survival could all come down to what happens to Ukraine. If the ex-USSR country can consolidate its governance and form a true democracy, Russians would wonder why they are rued by Putin, the Authoritarian. If Ukraine enacts reforms and realises its potential, the Russian people will become poor neighbours. We have all seen the crackdown on free speech and anti-government protests in Russia. Currently, those numbers are manageable. The changes that could come about in Ukraine could cause Russians to ask why their voices are ignored.
The Russian gas pipeline runs through Ukraine, and the EU could block sales of gas to its member states; this would hurt Russia a lot. Although, doing this now, in winter and with the current gas market, would also hurt the west. The Nord 2 gas pipeline is currently being laid and Germany have threatened that it will cancel the license. However, this will be a big political problem for Germany and Putin could call bluff. Western financial institutions could cut Russia out of SWIFT* financial transactions, which would hurt but not be devastating as Russia is counting on the support of China. A ‘Critical Parts’ importation ban would stop a lot of western goods and machinery from getting to Russia. However, for this to have any effect, it would take a year or more. The USA and the EU are currently in talks with Moscow, but academics do not expect any agreements soon.
According to USA intelligence, Russian operatives have recently placed themselves in strategic positions to conduct attacks against their Russian troops in Ukraine. This action is called a False Flag Operation. After which, Putin will order an invasion in parts of Eastern Ukraine. The west will condemn the move and ask Putin for order. Putin hopes that after the attack, Russia will be in a stronger position to keep a large ‘peace-keeping’ force in Ukraine until an agreement with western countries favours Russia is signed. We have seen this in Kazakhstan recently.
However, Russia’s treatment of Tatars may come back to haunt it. Today, Tatars with Muslim fighters from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Chechnya, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh have joined forces. They are currently training together with many Ukrainians, creating militias, ready to fend off Russian aggression.
A pandemic in winter is an excellent time for an armed invasion. So, probably within the next few weeks. The ground will start to thaw in March, and that means mud which is the enemy of an attacking force.
Past two weeks. 12 Russian regions have been calling up reserve forces. Videos of Russian troops from the country’s far eastern regions saying goodbye to their families, then boarding trains have been emerging on social media.
January 17 Thousands of Russian troops are moving into Belarus and massing on the border with Ukraine.
January 18 Russian diplomats are leaving the embassy in Kyiv. There are now 130,000 Russian troops on the border of Ukraine.
Russia will attempt a pincer movement from the North (Belarus) and the eastern border between Ukraine and Russia. The object will be to take control of the capital Kyiv. This has been recognised by the Ukrainian government, and preparations to evacuate the capital have already begun.
Officials have prepared the city’s 5,000 bomb shelters. The capital city’s emergency plans call for a full evacuation of 3 million citizens in the event of a major military attack. Kyiv officials told Coffee or Die that evacuation plans had already been worked out. However, a short-notice evacuation of so many people during winter will result in many deaths.
Putin will want at least:
An agreement that prevents Ukraine joining NATO.
Crimea to become a neutral state with Russian security.